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For more than a decade, higher education leaders have been preparing for a demographic shift that would fundamentally alter undergraduate recruitment. That anticipated future has now arrived. According to the , the number of high school graduates in the United States peaked in 2025 and is projected to decline by approximately 13 percent through 2041. Rooted in birth patterns established nearly two decades ago, this contraction represents a sustained change in the population from which colleges and universities have traditionally drawn their incoming classes.

The effects will be neither uniform nor equally consequential for every campus. The commission projects that just 10 states will experience growth beyond the 2025 peak, while will account for approximately three-quarters of the national decline. For four-year schools whose enrollment depends heavily on regional recruitment, especially regional public universities and tuition-dependent private colleges, these shifts will intensify competition for an increasingly limited pool of prospective students.

Although the demographic trajectory is largely set, its implications for college enrollment are far less certain. indicates that even modest annual increases in college-going rates could more than offset the projected decline in high school graduates. Colleges therefore retain considerable influence over their outcomes, most notably in how effectively they engage prospective students, communicate the value of their academic offerings, and encourage interested students to take the next step toward enrollment.

Where Admissions Teams Can Act

The college application deserves particular attention. For students weighing competing options, financial considerations, and the demands of senior year, the decision to apply represents a meaningful commitment of time and resources. For colleges and universities, each completed application creates an opportunity to deepen the relationship with a prospective student and demonstrate why the campus belongs on the student's final list. As competition for students grows, increasing application volume will require admissions teams to examine both the barriers that discourage students from applying and the strategies that turn initial interest into a completed application. The following five approaches offer practical ways to strengthen this effort.

1. Deploy Application Fee Waivers Strategically

For many prospective students and their families, application fees represent a financial hurdle that can quietly narrow the range of colleges under consideration. First-generation and lower-income students may be particularly sensitive to these costs, while even families with greater financial flexibility may hesitate to incur additional fees. Colleges should therefore weigh the revenue that application fees generate against the prospective students those fees may discourage from applying.

Research suggests that lowering cost and information barriers together can change student behavior. In a , economists Caroline Hoxby and Sarah Turner found that a package of college information and paperwork-free fee waivers, costing about $6 per student, led to 48 percent more applications. Participating students were also 46 percent more likely to enroll at a college matched to their academic preparation, rather than a school that was less selective than their record warranted.

Effective fee waiver programs extend beyond broad eligibility policies to support specific recruitment objectives. Admissions offices might establish limited-time waiver periods, offer waivers to students who participate in campus visits or virtual events, or prioritize selected high schools and territories. Automatically extending waivers to students who qualify for free or reduced-price lunch or have received standardized testing fee waivers also eliminates unnecessary administrative barriers.

The way a college presents these offers determines much of their impact. A personalized invitation accompanied by a clear deadline conveys genuine interest while providing a compelling reason to act. For students uncertain about whether a four-year college is accessible or attainable, that invitation also communicates that they are wanted. A thoughtfully designed fee waiver strategy can therefore advance both affordability and enrollment goals.

2. Streamline the Application Experience

Every additional requirement in the application process creates another potential obstacle to completion. Admissions teams should periodically evaluate whether each essay, supplemental question, and supporting document informs the admission decision. Duplicative requests, unnecessary documentation, and requirements that could wait until after admission add complexity without improving the ability to evaluate applicants.

The expanded its direct admission program to 16 campuses in 2026, beginning with fall 2027 applicants, reflecting growing interest in more accessible admission pathways. Prepopulated applications offer another approach by reducing the need for students to repeatedly provide information the college already has.

3. Engage Students Earlier Through the Platforms They Already Use

By the fall of senior year, many students have already developed a relatively defined list of prospective colleges. Those preferences form over several years through family conversations, counselor guidance, and exploration within the college and career readiness platforms that increasingly support high school students' postsecondary planning. Colleges that begin outreach only when application season arrives may find themselves competing for consideration after students have already set their priorities.

Engaging students through these platforms before senior year allows colleges and universities to build familiarity earlier in the decision-making process. As students investigate academic programs, explore potential careers, and compare postsecondary pathways, they can encounter schools that align with their emerging interests and aspirations. A college that appears at these moments becomes part of the student's thinking long before the application opens.

This earlier engagement also supports more targeted outreach. Student activity within a college and career readiness platform can offer clear indications of academic interests and postsecondary intentions, allowing admissions teams to develop messaging that is more relevant than conventional prospecting based on purchased student lists or isolated campus encounters. By nurturing interest throughout the exploration process, admissions teams build a stronger foundation for future applications.

4. Cultivate Stronger Partnerships With High School Counselors

High school counselors play an influential role in helping students identify appropriate colleges and navigate the application process, particularly when students have limited access to college-going guidance outside school. The national student-to-counselor ratio, however, averaged , well above the 250-to-1 ratio the American School Counselor Association recommends. Caseloads of that size leave counselors little time to research individual colleges and universities in depth, so admissions offices that provide accessible information and responsive support become valuable partners in this work.

Collaboration begins with practical resources. Clear admission criteria, readily available fee waiver codes, timely scholarship and deadline information, and direct access to an admissions representative who responds quickly all help counselors guide students more efficiently. Colleges can further strengthen these relationships by partnering with high schools to host application workshops, which give students dedicated time and individualized assistance to complete their submissions.

These partnerships benefit colleges, high schools, and prospective applicants. Counselors gain resources that support their advising responsibilities, while admissions teams create additional opportunities to engage students, address application barriers, and translate interest into completed submissions. Over time, a college that consistently supports counselors becomes a trusted name that counselors recommend to students who might not otherwise have considered it.

5. Prioritize Follow-Up With Students Who Have Started Applications

Students who start an application without submitting it represent an especially valuable audience. A covering more than 1.2 million prospective applicants found that nearly one in four started at least one application but submitted none, even though their grades and test scores closely resembled those of students who finished. The essay emerged as a major sticking point, which suggests that many of these students face an obstacle that targeted support can help them overcome. Identifying these students and tailoring outreach to their circumstances can be an efficient way to improve completion rates.

Strong follow-up combines timeliness, specificity, and personal attention. Communications that identify outstanding requirements, clarify deadlines, and provide a direct point of contact are more useful than generic application reminders. Text messaging can complement email outreach, while a message from the admissions representative assigned to the student's territory can reinforce the personal connection built earlier in the process. Research suggests personalization drives results. In one , low-income graduates who received personalized text reminders about the steps required to enroll were up to 7.1 percentage points more likely to attend college, while of generic messages to roughly 800,000 students produced no measurable effect.

Cost information should also accompany these communications. Students may hesitate to complete an application because published tuition appears unaffordable, even when scholarships and financial aid could substantially reduce their actual costs. Providing net price information, relevant scholarship details, and clear guidance on fee waivers helps students make informed decisions about proceeding.

From Student Interest to Completed Applications

Increasing application volume is most valuable when colleges attract students with a genuine likelihood of enrolling. Admissions teams should complement application growth strategies with timely decisions, transparent financial aid communication, and sustained personal engagement throughout the enrollment process. As competition intensifies, colleges that approach recruitment as a continuous relationship, beginning well before the application and extending through enrollment, will be better equipped to sustain their incoming classes.